Even as stockpiling in China is set to raise the bar for the price of tin, miners in Peru may go on strike on March 15, which could bring on some pressure. Queensland Small Miners too have blamed the government for not adequately supporting small miners.
Unlike most of the other base metals, there is no growing tin surplus. Inventories held at the London Metal Exchange now sit at 8,820 tonnes, against a 52-week high of 11,430 tonnes. The potential is that a rebound in Chinese demand, coupled with the closing of mines in Indonesia, could trigger supply shortages.
China has been bailing out its struggling domestic smelters by stockpiling metals since December. Heralding the Chinese New Year, wherein most companies and projects run overtime during the Spring Festival in order to ensure annual production plan, several firms have decided to take the long road.
Normally, tin doesn't get a lot of attention. The lowly, non glamorous tin is becoming increasingly important however, overtaking lead as the metal of choice in modern electronics soldering, especially after EU regulations requiring lead-free solders was implemented in 2006. In 2006, tin accounted for 50 per cent of solders; in 2007, that market share grew to 52 per cent.
The world’s leading tin miner, PT Timah has announced it may restrict refined tin production in an attempt to counteract falling prices. PT Timah’s production curbs are representative of a growing trend in Indonesia. Tin smelters across the nation are halting production.
Although the short-term outlook for tin and other industrial use metals is understandably bleak at the moment, the long-term projections for the dull base metal show it is likely to outshine the majority of its commodity cousins once the current crisis abates.
Tin prices have dropped to their lowest level in over a year as the global financial crisis continues to cause concern that economic slowdowns worldwide will substantially decrease the demand for raw materials.
Indonesia’s refined tin exports in August dropped 16.7% to 8,231.49 tonnes from 9,883.28 tonnes in July and are down 28.5% from a year ago. The decline in tin exports may be attributed to buyers who have curtailed purchases due to adequate stock.
Thursday, March 5, 2009