Commodities like tin, rubber and steel could be heading for a short-term rally in the near future bolstered by active buying interest from institutional and fund managers on most major world commodities, dealers said. Manufacturers worldwide were seen building up inventories to take advantage of the current weak US dollar, traders said. The weak greenback makes commodities attractive as a hedge against inflation.
Tin prices gained a whopping 18 per cent on the LME in the month of April, despite a huge gain in LME inventories by almost 15 per cent. Global production, however, is expected to fall 6.5 per cent by 21,000 tonnes, to 304,500 tonnes in 2009. According to the International Tin Research Institute demand for tin is expected to fall by 10.5 per cent in 2009 amid the global economic crisis. Hence, the market could be in surplus by 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes in 2009.
Unlike most of the other base metals, there is no growing tin surplus. Inventories held at the London Metal Exchange now sit at 8,820 tonnes, against a 52-week high of 11,430 tonnes. The potential is that a rebound in Chinese demand, coupled with the closing of mines in Indonesia, could trigger supply shortages.
Thursday, June 4, 2009