One investor seems to be buying up most of the tin traded on the LME. Sparking unease among traders, several questions are doing the rounds - are the prices being pushed up artificially? Why the big position? Who benefits?
Following major criticism over the increase of its tin-plate prices, which were adjusted yearly by 69% to 78%, ArcelorMittal South Africa (ACLJ.J)
has toned down prices. The decision was welcomed by the packaging industry. But tin prices have yet to respond significantly to the fresh supply problems in Indonesia, which may be partly due to the strong recovery in Chinese production.
Tin touched $15,400 a tonne on Thursday, the highest since the middle of June. Focus though is on a large position holder, which has bought tin for delivery in September and sold it for December. Worries are that those who sold to the entity will be caught short. Investors are also worried whether the stock market surge is only a catch-up rally, or is it time to pocket some recent gains in anticipation of turbulence ahead if the economic recovery fizzles? While some analysts say gains are justified given the horrific depths to which indexes sank in March, others are growing nervous.
Commodities like tin, rubber and steel could be heading for a short-term rally in the near future bolstered by active buying interest from institutional and fund managers on most major world commodities, dealers said. Manufacturers worldwide were seen building up inventories to take advantage of the current weak US dollar, traders said. The weak greenback makes commodities attractive as a hedge against inflation.
Tin prices gained a whopping 18 per cent on the LME in the month of April, despite a huge gain in LME inventories by almost 15 per cent. Global production, however, is expected to fall 6.5 per cent by 21,000 tonnes, to 304,500 tonnes in 2009. According to the International Tin Research Institute demand for tin is expected to fall by 10.5 per cent in 2009 amid the global economic crisis. Hence, the market could be in surplus by 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes in 2009.
It couldn't have come at a better time. Sentiment on the LME metals complex is still trapped between the conflicting signals coming from East and West, resulting in choppy, consolidatory price action. However, downside momentum has stalled across the board with predators now looking for "relative value" plays.
Even as stockpiling in China is set to raise the bar for the price of tin, miners in Peru may go on strike on March 15, which could bring on some pressure. Queensland Small Miners too have blamed the government for not adequately supporting small miners.
South Africa’s Gatumba Mining Concessions (GMC) will invest $2.5 million exploring for tin and tantalum in Rwanda this year, the company has said.
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Wednesday, October 14, 2009