Unlike most of the other base metals, there is no growing tin surplus. Inventories held at the London Metal Exchange now sit at 8,820 tonnes, against a 52-week high of 11,430 tonnes. The potential is that a rebound in Chinese demand, coupled with the closing of mines in Indonesia, could trigger supply shortages.
China has been bailing out its struggling domestic smelters by stockpiling metals since December. Heralding the Chinese New Year, wherein most companies and projects run overtime during the Spring Festival in order to ensure annual production plan, several firms have decided to take the long road.
Normally, tin doesn't get a lot of attention. The lowly, non glamorous tin is becoming increasingly important however, overtaking lead as the metal of choice in modern electronics soldering, especially after EU regulations requiring lead-free solders was implemented in 2006. In 2006, tin accounted for 50 per cent of solders; in 2007, that market share grew to 52 per cent.
The price of tin was given a nearly 6 percent boost last week from Yunnan province’s announcement that it would spend about $3 million on building a 100,000 tonne stockpile of tin. The tin stockpile is a part of a wider base metals stockpile plan meant to help support local metals smelters.
The world’s leading tin miner, PT Timah has announced it may restrict refined tin production in an attempt to counteract falling prices. PT Timah’s production curbs are representative of a growing trend in Indonesia. Tin smelters across the nation are halting production.
Although the short-term outlook for tin and other industrial use metals is understandably bleak at the moment, the long-term projections for the dull base metal show it is likely to outshine the majority of its commodity cousins once the current crisis abates.
Although lower tin prices may appear to be a sign of a faltering market, many metals analysts say the supply market remains increasingly tight and a deficit is expected this year. There is a huge contradiction of what is happening to the price and the underlying state of the market.
Tin prices have dropped to their lowest level in over a year as the global financial crisis continues to cause concern that economic slowdowns worldwide will substantially decrease the demand for raw materials.
The base metals are down for the year, with tin and nickel suffering the most. Each has lost more than 25% in the last quarter. After Congress voted down the $700 billion bailout plan, tin prices hit their weakest level since September 18, dropping 6.3% to $16,680 on the LME.
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