Following major criticism over the increase of its tin-plate prices, which were adjusted yearly by 69% to 78%, ArcelorMittal South Africa (ACLJ.J)
has toned down prices. The decision was welcomed by the packaging industry. But tin prices have yet to respond significantly to the fresh supply problems in Indonesia, which may be partly due to the strong recovery in Chinese production.
Lots of positive sentiment in the air. Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest miner, said it saw signs of recovery in China and it expected aluminum AL-FT prices to rise in the second half of 2009. Indonesia's tin consortium, Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera too expects a 20-30 per cent increase in its monthly production of 2,000 tonnes during the Muslim fasting season which starts on Saturday.
Commodities may be teetering on second U of the W-shaped recovery. Tin continues to face a challenge, with a possible erosion in demand. The main culprit: the current global recession. Last week, ITRI Ltd, an international tin grouping, came up with a disturbing report stating that demand would likely drop 10-15 per cent this year, on the back of excess supply.
The metals markets got a surge of heat with world leaders committing $1.1 trillion to combat global recession. Tin was up at $10,950 a tonne, its highest since March 11, from $10,450.
China has been bailing out its struggling domestic smelters by stockpiling metals since December. Heralding the Chinese New Year, wherein most companies and projects run overtime during the Spring Festival in order to ensure annual production plan, several firms have decided to take the long road.
The price of tin was given a nearly 6 percent boost last week from Yunnan province’s announcement that it would spend about $3 million on building a 100,000 tonne stockpile of tin. The tin stockpile is a part of a wider base metals stockpile plan meant to help support local metals smelters.
The world’s leading tin miner, PT Timah has announced it may restrict refined tin production in an attempt to counteract falling prices. PT Timah’s production curbs are representative of a growing trend in Indonesia. Tin smelters across the nation are halting production.
Although the short-term outlook for tin and other industrial use metals is understandably bleak at the moment, the long-term projections for the dull base metal show it is likely to outshine the majority of its commodity cousins once the current crisis abates.
Although lower tin prices may appear to be a sign of a faltering market, many metals analysts say the supply market remains increasingly tight and a deficit is expected this year. There is a huge contradiction of what is happening to the price and the underlying state of the market.
Tin prices have dropped to their lowest level in over a year as the global financial crisis continues to cause concern that economic slowdowns worldwide will substantially decrease the demand for raw materials.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
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