Cadbury has abandoned its tin cans for cardboard boxes, in an attempt to go green this Christmas. Could this prove to be the death knell for the tin industry?
Tin touched $15,400 a tonne on Thursday, the highest since the middle of June. Focus though is on a large position holder, which has bought tin for delivery in September and sold it for December. Worries are that those who sold to the entity will be caught short. Investors are also worried whether the stock market surge is only a catch-up rally, or is it time to pocket some recent gains in anticipation of turbulence ahead if the economic recovery fizzles? While some analysts say gains are justified given the horrific depths to which indexes sank in March, others are growing nervous.
For decades the tin market has moved from one crisis to another, and the current world recession is now raising new challenges for all stakeholders in the industry. In the short-term the market is again oversupplied, but in a few years the situation could change dramatically. Though global demand for tin has fallen rapidly to an estimated 350,000 tonnes in 2008, the 15 tin companies listed on the ASX are doing extremely well. Check out an overview.
Commodities like tin, rubber and steel could be heading for a short-term rally in the near future bolstered by active buying interest from institutional and fund managers on most major world commodities, dealers said. Manufacturers worldwide were seen building up inventories to take advantage of the current weak US dollar, traders said. The weak greenback makes commodities attractive as a hedge against inflation.
Tin prices gained a whopping 18 per cent on the LME in the month of April, despite a huge gain in LME inventories by almost 15 per cent. Global production, however, is expected to fall 6.5 per cent by 21,000 tonnes, to 304,500 tonnes in 2009. According to the International Tin Research Institute demand for tin is expected to fall by 10.5 per cent in 2009 amid the global economic crisis. Hence, the market could be in surplus by 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes in 2009.
The metals markets got a surge of heat with world leaders committing $1.1 trillion to combat global recession. Tin was up at $10,950 a tonne, its highest since March 11, from $10,450.
Even as stockpiling in China is set to raise the bar for the price of tin, miners in Peru may go on strike on March 15, which could bring on some pressure. Queensland Small Miners too have blamed the government for not adequately supporting small miners.
Unlike most of the other base metals, there is no growing tin surplus. Inventories held at the London Metal Exchange now sit at 8,820 tonnes, against a 52-week high of 11,430 tonnes. The potential is that a rebound in Chinese demand, coupled with the closing of mines in Indonesia, could trigger supply shortages.
Slowdown in China’s imports of major base metals would continue to remain a cause for concern in the base metals market.
For full story, click here
China had dominated the metals market agenda the previous week but last week all eyes were on
the world’s largest economy, the United States.
For full story, click here
Thursday, November 5, 2009