Tin touched $15,400 a tonne on Thursday, the highest since the middle of June. Focus though is on a large position holder, which has bought tin for delivery in September and sold it for December. Worries are that those who sold to the entity will be caught short. Investors are also worried whether the stock market surge is only a catch-up rally, or is it time to pocket some recent gains in anticipation of turbulence ahead if the economic recovery fizzles? While some analysts say gains are justified given the horrific depths to which indexes sank in March, others are growing nervous.
Tin prices gained a whopping 18 per cent on the LME in the month of April, despite a huge gain in LME inventories by almost 15 per cent. Global production, however, is expected to fall 6.5 per cent by 21,000 tonnes, to 304,500 tonnes in 2009. According to the International Tin Research Institute demand for tin is expected to fall by 10.5 per cent in 2009 amid the global economic crisis. Hence, the market could be in surplus by 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes in 2009.
Malaysian tin jumped 7.5 per cent to score more than a 4-month high on Monday to US$ 12,080, as soaring London Metal Exchange prices and buoyant demand led by Europe boosted prices, one dealer said. The current price level was unseen since December 12, 2008. Tin price had peaked at $25,495/t in May 2008, but then slumped by more than 50 per cent in five months, due to the global financial crisis.
The metals markets got a surge of heat with world leaders committing $1.1 trillion to combat global recession. Tin was up at $10,950 a tonne, its highest since March 11, from $10,450.
Unlike most of the other base metals, there is no growing tin surplus. Inventories held at the London Metal Exchange now sit at 8,820 tonnes, against a 52-week high of 11,430 tonnes. The potential is that a rebound in Chinese demand, coupled with the closing of mines in Indonesia, could trigger supply shortages.
The price of tin was given a nearly 6 percent boost last week from Yunnan province’s announcement that it would spend about $3 million on building a 100,000 tonne stockpile of tin. The tin stockpile is a part of a wider base metals stockpile plan meant to help support local metals smelters.
Although the short-term outlook for tin and other industrial use metals is understandably bleak at the moment, the long-term projections for the dull base metal show it is likely to outshine the majority of its commodity cousins once the current crisis abates.
Tin prices have dropped to their lowest level in over a year as the global financial crisis continues to cause concern that economic slowdowns worldwide will substantially decrease the demand for raw materials.
The base metals are down for the year, with tin and nickel suffering the most. Each has lost more than 25% in the last quarter. After Congress voted down the $700 billion bailout plan, tin prices hit their weakest level since September 18, dropping 6.3% to $16,680 on the LME.
Thursday, August 6, 2009