Lots of positive sentiment in the air. Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest miner, said it saw signs of recovery in China and it expected aluminum AL-FT prices to rise in the second half of 2009. Indonesia’s tin consortium, Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera too expects a 20-30 per cent increase in its monthly production of 2,000 tonnes during the Muslim fasting season which starts on Saturday.
Tin touched $15,400 a tonne on Thursday, the highest since the middle of June. Focus though is on a large position holder, which has bought tin for delivery in September and sold it for December. Worries are that those who sold to the entity will be caught short. Investors are also worried whether the stock market surge is only a catch-up rally, or is it time to pocket some recent gains in anticipation of turbulence ahead if the economic recovery fizzles? While some analysts say gains are justified given the horrific depths to which indexes sank in March, others are growing nervous.
For decades the tin market has moved from one crisis to another, and the current world recession is now raising new challenges for all stakeholders in the industry. In the short-term the market is again oversupplied, but in a few years the situation could change dramatically. Though global demand for tin has fallen rapidly to an estimated 350,000 tonnes in 2008, the 15 tin companies listed on the ASX are doing extremely well. Check out an overview.
The Kuala Lumpur Tin Market, which posted losses for three consecutive days, is expected to see steady trading next week. For full story, click here
Long tin positions are a major bugbear for the tin industry. Committee members at the London Metal Exchange are angry at the LME’s lack of action on the large scale long tin positions. Market concerns centre on the September-December 2009 contracts and the amount of available metal stored in LME tin inventories, after a large number of positions were built up last week. And in other spy tales, an Australian executive with mining giant Rio Tinto was being held in China as a suspected spy.
Indonesia has approved an export permit for a new tin smelter, bringing the total number of smelters allowed to 30. For full story, click here
Indonesia’s PT Timah Tbk, the world’s leading integrated tin miner, declared that it may boost spot sales if tin prices climb to $18,000-$20,000 per tonne after a slip in sales earlier in 2009. For full story, click here
From one crisis to another in past decades, tin is now being challenged again with a possible erosion in demand, which is suppressed by the current international slump. For full story, click here
Tin exports from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are back up despite the threat of United Nations sanctions and pressure from rights campaigners linking the trade to local conflicts. For full story, click here
Commodities may be teetering on second U of the W-shaped recovery. Tin continues to face a challenge, with a possible erosion in demand. The main culprit: the current global recession. Last week, ITRI Ltd, an international tin grouping, came up with a disturbing report stating that demand would likely drop 10-15 per cent this year, on the back of excess supply.
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