Cadbury has abandoned its tin cans for cardboard boxes, in an attempt to go green this Christmas. Could this prove to be the death knell for the tin industry?
Tin mining is to make a triumphant return to Cornwall as part of a landmark scheme which will create 1,000 new jobs and see vast swathes of land turned over to housing and employment. Western United Mines has sealed a deal that will bring mining operations back to life.
One investor seems to be buying up most of the tin traded on the LME. Sparking unease among traders, several questions are doing the rounds – are the prices being pushed up artificially? Why the big position? Who benefits?
Following major criticism over the increase of its tin-plate prices, which were adjusted yearly by 69% to 78%, ArcelorMittal South Africa (ACLJ.J)
has toned down prices. The decision was welcomed by the packaging industry. But tin prices have yet to respond significantly to the fresh supply problems in Indonesia, which may be partly due to the strong recovery in Chinese production.
A police crackdown on illegal tin mining in Indonesia, including in Bangka-Belitung islands, has cut ore supplies. Analysts maintain the current crack down may not be as severe as the one in 2006, which halted tin production at small smelters for months, mainly because the government has tightened tin export rules. Moreover, PT Timah Tbk and PT Koba Tin, a unit of Malaysian Smelting Corp, were not affected by the crackdown.
Australia’s Metals X and China’s Yunnan Tin Group have announced that they had signed a Heads of Agreement to form a joint venture to control the MLX’s Tasmanian tin assets. Meanwhile, Cadillac Ventures Inc, a junior Toronto mineral developer, says it has failed to reach a final agreement with Latin American Minerals Inc on the Tendal VMS zinc, lead and copper project in Argentina and has decided to scrap talks. Australian tin exploration company Consolidated Tin Mines Limited is to undertake a placement of 10 million shares to raise A$1million.
Lots of positive sentiment in the air. Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest miner, said it saw signs of recovery in China and it expected aluminum AL-FT prices to rise in the second half of 2009. Indonesia’s tin consortium, Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera too expects a 20-30 per cent increase in its monthly production of 2,000 tonnes during the Muslim fasting season which starts on Saturday.
Tin touched $15,400 a tonne on Thursday, the highest since the middle of June. Focus though is on a large position holder, which has bought tin for delivery in September and sold it for December. Worries are that those who sold to the entity will be caught short. Investors are also worried whether the stock market surge is only a catch-up rally, or is it time to pocket some recent gains in anticipation of turbulence ahead if the economic recovery fizzles? While some analysts say gains are justified given the horrific depths to which indexes sank in March, others are growing nervous.
For decades the tin market has moved from one crisis to another, and the current world recession is now raising new challenges for all stakeholders in the industry. In the short-term the market is again oversupplied, but in a few years the situation could change dramatically. Though global demand for tin has fallen rapidly to an estimated 350,000 tonnes in 2008, the 15 tin companies listed on the ASX are doing extremely well. Check out an overview.
Long tin positions are a major bugbear for the tin industry. Committee members at the London Metal Exchange are angry at the LME’s lack of action on the large scale long tin positions. Market concerns centre on the September-December 2009 contracts and the amount of available metal stored in LME tin inventories, after a large number of positions were built up last week. And in other spy tales, an Australian executive with mining giant Rio Tinto was being held in China as a suspected spy.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
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